In this regard, at the first quarter economic operation analysis meeting held by the Expert Committee of the China Machine Federation, the China Spring Machinery Industry Federation Special counsel Cai Weici said that the overall situation is relatively severe, mainly due to the fact that the macroeconomic environment has not fundamentally improved, especially investment and consumer demand have not yet improved. At the same time, the industry's own overcapacity has exacerbated this dilemma. Coupled with the industry's high growth curve last year, the decline this year has become even more pronounced.
A sluggish start, the price index is hardly optimistic
Cai Weici summarized the performance of machinery industry sub-sectors in the first quarter into three types. Among them, automobiles, instrumentation, basic parts, and internal combustion engines are slightly higher than the average growth of the industry; electrical engineering, petrochemical, etc. are equivalent to the average growth of the industry; heavy, construction machinery, agricultural machinery, machine tools, etc. may be slightly lower than the average. In terms of specific data, among the 49 medium-sized industries counted by the Bureau of Statistics, 30 saw a year-on-year decline in growth from January to February this year.
Cai Weici said that there are many incomparable factors in the figures at the beginning of the year. According to analysis and judgment, in March, especially in the second quarter, the growth rate of the machinery industry will be higher than the level of January to February.
In terms of the internal combustion engine industry, the sales volume of internal combustion engines in February was 3.77 million units, a decrease of 27% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 6.3%. Among them, the gasoline engine market has a strong growth momentum, the passenger car market still leads the internal combustion engine market, and the small general engine market has a good start to the year. The diesel engine market has declined significantly, with some companies experiencing a decline of more than 20%. Each segment of the market supporting diesel engines has declined to varying degrees.
The relevant person in charge of the Internal Combustion Engine Industry Association stated at the meeting that through the analysis of last year’s import and export data, although my country’s internal combustion engine industry has a trade surplus overall, calculations found that the unit price of imported products is much higher than the unit price of exported products, which is close to 10 times. Although the export products are large in quantity, they have average technical content and low prices. Realizing industrial upgrading and increasing brand premiums are issues that the industry needs to solve urgently.
Accounts receivable increase, corporate financial pressure remains unabated
A reporter from China Industry News learned at the meeting that in the first two months of this year, the difficulties faced by spring machinery enterprises are still financial The pressure remains unabated, accounts receivable increase, and market demand continues to be sluggish.
From the perspective of the general machinery industry, among the six main products of the general machinery industry from January to February, pumps, compressors, gas separation and liquefaction equipment, and reducers increased year-on-year, while fans and valves decreased year-on-year. The industrial added value of pumps, compressors, and valves increased by 5.5% year-on-year in the first two months, and the added value of the fan industry increased by 7.6% year-on-year. Other general The industrial added value of spring machinery increased by 5.6% year-on-year.
The relevant person in charge of GM's spring machinery industry association said that at present, GM The spring machinery industry has many companies that have gradually adapted to the new normal of China’s economy, but the high accounts receivable is still a prominent problem facing the development of the industry. Among them, some users postpone the receipt of goods, or refuse to pay for various improper reasons. At the same time, the price war has intensified. In order to compete for the market, some companies have taken orders regardless of cost and even no profit. Some companies have disrupted the market at the expense of product quality. The association recommends that the industry association formulate product market guidance prices and formulate corresponding industry regulations as soon as possible to regulate the market.
From the heavy-duty spring machinery industry, the total output value of the industry fell by 9.6% from January to February, and the industrial sales output value fell by 3.88%. Orders dropped by 19.35%. Heavy-duty spring machinery has different operating situations. Advantageous companies have a good ordering situation, and disadvantaged companies have been shuffled seriously. Insufficient market demand, new orders dropped year-on-year, and the distribution was uneven.
Since the beginning of this year, the new order prices of the spring machine industry have continued to remain low, and the prices of some traditional products are still falling. Although the purchase price of raw materials and supporting parts has also fallen, it is not enough to compensate for the impact of the price drop on profits, and the pressure on corporate efficiency is still relatively large.
The relevant person in charge of the heavy duty spring machinery industry association said that tight industry funding is still an important issue. Under the current economic environment, corporate funds are all strained, making collections more difficult, and the proportion of cash in collections has decreased. Factors such as some users' requests for postponement of deliveries and advances for large-scale complete projects have caused slow corporate capital turnover, which has further increased corporate operating costs and operational risks.
Regarding the trend forecast of the spring machine industry, the association believes that the current downward pressure on the domestic economy is still not lifted, but a new round The development focused on energy saving, emission reduction, quality improvement and efficiency enhancement is already in the making. Affected by the shrinking market, spring machinery The industry has shown a trend of contraction for three consecutive years. Taking into account the lagging characteristics of the heavy machinery industry, it is expected that the basic situation of the heavy machinery industry this year is unlikely to improve significantly, and the growth rate is expected to drop by 1 to 2 percentage points compared with last year.
From the engineering spring machinery industry, in the first two months of this year, engineering Spring Machinery’s main product sales continued to decline, the market demand was weakly consolidating, and the upward momentum was insufficient. The sales volume of the 9 major consoles all dropped significantly. The leading products were mainly excavators, loaders, bulldozers, and truck cranes. The decline in March is expected to continue.
The relevant person in charge of the engineering spring machinery industry association said that from the survey results, the decline in revenue and the increase in expenses continued last year. Increase in collections, difficulty in capital turnover, and declining profits. What is different from the past is that the decline in operating income has increased, financial expenses and interest expenses have increased at a high rate, and the decline in profits has continued to expand.
The association predicts that in the first half of the year, the engineering spring machinery market will still be significantly lower than last year. It is expected that there will be no significant decline throughout the year, or it will be the same as last year or slightly increase.
Cai Weici predicts that the decline of the spring machinery industry in the second quarter will slow down.Can pick up. Given that the country's measures to stabilize growth will gradually take effect, coupled with the improvement of the industry's own ability to respond to crises, it is expected that the industry will recover steadily after March. The annual growth rate of spring machinery will still be around 8%, and the growth rate of main business income will be 8% , The profit rate is about 10%, and the foreign exchange earning from exports is 6%.